Buencamino does political affairs analysis for Action for Economic Reforms. This piece was published in the newspaper Today, page 11, 14 July 2004.
“The pump don’t work ‘cuz the vandals broke the handle” – Bob Dylan
My friends at the AER (Action for Economic Reforms) say we areexperiencing a fiscal crisis. They are not the only ones to say so.Former Finance Secretary Isidro Camacho has said so, and so have theADB (Asian Development Bank) and the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
We have a fiscal crisis because we spend more than we earn and weresort to borrowing to make ends meet— then we borrow some more to paythose debts. Economists warn that if we don’t break this cycle, we willborrow ourselves into bankruptcy. At that point, the fiscal crisisbecomes an economic crisis.
So, what is the reaction of our Leader* to this dire warning?
The President* says, “I intend to call the LEDAC (Legislative-ExecutiveDevelopment Advisory Council) at the earliest opportunity to discussthis matter of national importance.”
That’s well and good if she istalking about the fiscal crisis but she is not. She is talking aboutconvening the LEDAC to discuss Charter change.
Charter change is Mrs. Arroyo’s top priority. She said, “If we placethis in the backburner for too long, it could burn out and be lostforever.” As a result, many worry that it’s the fiscal crisis that willbe placed in the backburner. Her spokesman sought to dispel concerns bystating, “This will not conflict with our equally earnest efforts totackle the fiscal deficit.” The question then is, “How many frontburners do you thinkyou have anyway?”
Noli de Castro may not have any background in anything exceptbroadcasting but the President* still picked him as the person togovern and lead the Philippines should the unthinkable happen to her. Istill remember when Mrs. Arroyo warned us that we would be thelaughingstock of the world if FPJ were elected president. So I am sureshe took her warning to heart before she picked Noli as a potentialpresident.
The fact that she chose to place Noli a heartbeat away from running thePhilippines makes crap out of all this civil society talk about an“unqualified” Noli being appointed to run the DSWD, instead of one oftheir own. The fact that Mrs. Arroyo chose Noli as her possiblereplacement means that she believes he is qualified and capable ofdoing whatever she can do, including running any Cabinet post. Doesanyone believe she is so cynical that she chose a laughingstock asrunning mate just so she could win over the masa vote?
Why not appoint Noli to Finance? Civil society will get their DSWD backand the Makati Business Club will get what it deserves. And if AngeloReyes is good enough to hold concurrent posts, why not appoint Noli toDefense too? That way he will become familiar with two of the biggestrat holes the country’s finances disappear into.
Noli is the only one in the administration that the masa believes. Healone can sell what AER calls “key tax and other fiscal measures” thatare “going to hurt.” Bear in mind that Noli made Mrs. Arroyo palatableto the masa, so making them swallow even the most bitter medicine won’tbe a problem for him. It will be as easy for Noli as it was for TommyOsmena to con Cebuanos into believing that the intelligent thing to dowas to elect President*Arroyo.
Noli has the masa and the masa is the key to Mrs. Arroyo’s survival andshe knows it. Noli can get any appointment he wants becausedisappointing him is not an option. Can Arroyo do a Dinky Soliman onNoli? Imagine Noli allied with FPJ, Erap and Loren and then ask AngeloReyes how much it takes for generals to turn their backs on theircommander-in-chief.
Mrs. Arroyo asked during a press briefing, “Why did EDSA 1, 2 and 3happen?” And she answered herself, “Because the president’s terms werenot over and the peoplewanted to change them.”
So Mrs. Arroyo decided that the first order of business is to push forCharter changes that would “do away with People Power to unseat anincumbent President.” In short, she will push to parliamentarize thekeys to Malacanang out of Noli’s hand.
For her sake, I hope Noli is as dumb as she and civil society think heis, because he just might end up laughing last and the loudest.
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