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Action for Economic Reforms

LOWERING UNEMPLOYMENT BY HIKING MINIMUM WAGE

The author is Associate Chair and Director of Graduate Studies Program, Department of Economics, Ateneo De Manila University.


For most economists, the idea of increasing the minimum wage is taboo.

Raise the idea and one instantly gets tagged for being a leftist.

Mention the thought and everybody jumps on one for defying the law of

supply and demand. Tinker with it and one supposedly endangers the

health of the economy by increasing the rate of unemployment.


The reason is simple. Get rid of the minimum wage, and supply and

demand will take care of itself. In due time, the labor market settles

at equilibrium. The number of laborers who desire to work (labor

supply) equals the number of employment opportunities (labor demand).

Thus, everybody gets employed.


On the other hand, raise the minimum wage and the cost of labor

increases. As a result, companies are less willing and able to hire

more. And this increases the rate of unemployment. In fact, one may

even draw a simple supply and demand diagram to show the increase of

unemployment and what economists call the deadweight loss.

As in reality, a World Bank study indicates that a 10% increase of

minimum wage increases unemployment by 7%. Indeed, this agrees with the

supply and demand of labor markets. And this justifies most economists

view. Increasing the minimum wage is detrimental to the economy as it

raises unemployment.


To analyze further, suppose that the minimum wage is P100 and that the

unemployment rate is 9%. To simplify, suppose that there are 10,000

laborers. This means that 9% or 900 are unemployed, and 9,100 of them

earn minimum wage. From that, aggregate wage is P910,000. Suppose that

government raises wage by 10% to P110. This necessarily increases

unemployment by 7% from 900 to 963. This means that minimum wage

earners decrease from 9,100 to 9,037. From that, aggregate wage changes

from P910,000 to P994,070.


In other words, aggregate wage increases by P84,070. If there are 20

working days per month, this translates to P1,681,400 per month or

P20,176,800 per year. Without counting the 13th-month pay and the

multiplier effect, this is P20,176,800 per year for Megamall, Jollibee,

and Aling Nenes Sari-Sari Store to make. And this translates to more

jobs!


More so, raising the minimum wage improves general welfare. Carl

Shapiro and Joseph Stiglitz (1984) once proposed to improve welfare by

collecting a lump-sum tax or tax on income, then transfer revenue to

employees as a form of subsidy on wage. This way, demand for output

goods increase. Firms sales and then profit increase. They increase

output and therefore increase demand for labor. Ultimately, welfare

improves.


But this does not fundamentally differ from raising the minimum wage.

Both effectively take income from firms. Both essentially transfer

money from firms to workers. The only difference is that money goes

straight to workers.


In other words, it is more efficient. First, the money goes straight to

wage earners, instead of having the money passed through government

paperwork, bureaucracy and even corruption. Second, it is more

difficult not to pay. When a firm does not pay tax, the government

sues. When it does not pay the wage earner, the wage earner sues.


Because the money ultimately belongs to the wage earner, he or she is

more relentless to make the firm pay. Third, taxation has more legal

loopholes, and greater administrative costs. For minimum wage, once the

firm hires, they pay at least the minimum wage or they pay illegally;

and there are no ifs, ands or buts on that. And fourth, instead of the

government spending for projects that it thinks are socially equitable,

wage earners themselves – spend the money to where their satisfaction

(utility) is maximized.


More so, raising the minimum wage increases government’s revenue. As

stated, raising the minimum wage by 10% results to greater aggregate

wage. This means greater tax base for the government. Add the fact that

the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) proportionately collects more tax

from wage than on corporate profit, revenue will even more likely

increase.


Nonetheless, increasing the minimum wage has other potential harms. For

one, doing so might increase inflation rate. Via Engels Law, minimum

wage earners proportionately spend more on necessities as food. Thus,

increasing the minimum wage increases wealth of wage earners, and this

increases demand especially on food items. As of February 2002, the

year-on-year inflation rate is approximately 3.4%, which is lowest in

recent history. Add the fact that this is mainly so because inflation

of food is approximately 1.5%. Then, increasing the minimum wage is not

likely to cause inflation.


We also know that industry sector is only 80% capacity utilized. Thus,

the increase in aggregate demand is not likely to push the industry

sector to its limit. Consequently, price in the industry sector is not

likely to increase.


Another argument that goes against raising the minimum wage is that it

may decrease investment. This goes for investors (foreign and domestic)

who want to set in this country to sell its products in the domestic

market, and those who want to export its products. For those who intend

to sell products in the domestic market, the cost of labor is offset by

added demand in the market. Thus, this type of investment is not likely

to be affected.


For investors who intend to export, China already offers extremely

lower wages to its laborers than we do. Thus, current foreign investors

would have already left long ago if only wage determines their

location. There is more than wage that investors consider before

investing; perhaps it is efficiency, due to efficiency wage models;

perhaps it is something else; but it is not only wage. In addition,

foreign investors usually pay greater than the minimum wage to begin

with. Thus, they are unlikely to be affected.


And finally and most importantly for politicians who claim to want to

alleviate poverty, raising the minimum wage is good politics. It

decreases labor unrest. And this leads to social benefit.

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